three steps

By: crunchgodabruinknees

a) evaluate the after-tax net

b) decide the probability of each outcome independently

c) calculate the E(v) expected value for each--that is the probability times the after-taxx net amount

In real world terms there are probably hopping off points on each where you dont have to ride the train on the downside or upside for any of them, that is different than what you said. you could set your own stop loss or "I've gained enough" points along the way based on future information, but C is a good start.

without probability making the bet decision is hard.

Keep in mind "Next Stop Willoughby"

Image result for willoughby twilight zone


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