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Bear Market likely to continue now...

By: StudioCity'98



...as the Bond Market begins to puke.  [see "Santa" note below for the last trade]

The Bond Market [always smarter than the Stock Makret] is suggesting that the economy is MUCH weaker than most people expected. The 10yr Bond is likely going back to 2.71% or lower.


The stock market is likely going back down to test the February lows at 23,700ish level, probably much lower. We're likely to break the Feb lows and trace out further downside continuing the Bear Market that began in October. Probably something like 22,500ish level as the first big step on Dow as next level down in Q1'19...if that does play out, we'll likely be going much lower. The 20,600 level is most likely, wiping out all of 2018 and half of 2017's gains.

Currently, Homes and Auto sales are abysmal. The average consumer is likely stretched to their limits. Student Debt is strangling a generation, those under 35.

Big Thing To Watch:
BBB credit market [one level up from junk] is over $3.2Trillion, an insane number. Something to think about: Before the 2008 GFC, the total BBB credit was only $1.8Trillion!!

If some of that Corp Paper begins to default we're likely to have some kind of credit crisis as Institutional sellers all rush for the exits at the same time as they have to sell their BBB bonds if they're downgraded one level. Creating systemic failure.

I'm broadly short from the 2800 level on SP500. And short a ton of individual names straight up and synthetically.  My short Option positions are exploding in value as Implied Volatility begins to increase. Front month Gamma is delivering 10x-15x returns as we fall outta bed.

For the average person who doesn't have access to an institutional desk, Cash is king. Preservation of capital in Bear Markets is key.

Gold [even though it's up a bit today] is not likely to be any help real help anytime soon as we're in a Deflationary environment. 

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