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Edited: Jan 03

1/02/2025 Mortgage Applications Fall Off a Cliff

Absolutely dismal. There is a seasonality factor and traditionally application volume falls this time of year but not this much. 7+ interest rates are taking their toll. The thing is Sellers are not budging at all. Prices remain high.

This is only affecting the volume of transactions but not prices, at least in California. Price drops are happening in parts of Texas, Fla and Az.

Why is a price crash unlikely?

The average consumer has a mortgage below 5% Fixed

2.Unlike the big crash of 2008 where we had massive credit growth without inflation in the preceding years, that has not been the case this time. Credit growth has been moderate and underwriting has been strong.

3.To have a crash you need distressed sales,ie foreclosures. Don’t listen to the YouTubers, this is not happening right now.Also the average consumer has massive equity in their house right now. Average loan to value is 46%, it was 85% in 2008.

4.The average down payment by a buyer has been exceeding 20%. This stat blows me away. People don’t walk away or lose their house to foreclosure when they have that much skin in the game.

5. The average credit score of a Buyer today is above 720.

Excellent credit buyers with large down payments are not an indicator of a coming crash.

To be clear, I’m a bottom feeder investor who has made good money picking through the bones of housing crash victims. IOW, I want to see a crash. But im not seeing it. Maybe Trump and Elon can make a nice big crash happen for us. Just my opinions.

11 comments

11 Comments

Java

Jan 03

As to Kanes comment. I’ll let balls deliver the punch line.

Hey Balls? Why does A dog lick himself?

BigBallss

Jan 03

Replying to

Because they can-ine? 😂

Kane Waselenchuk!

Jan 03

Hey Java, I have never ever seen someone kiss their own ass & suck their own dick until now.

Edited

Java

Jan 03

Replying to

Stay poor. Keeps the freeways and grocery stores open for those of us who can afford it

the909trojan

Jan 03

I'm no expert, but something's gotta give with those interest rates.

BigBallss

Jan 03

Replying to

What do you mean 909?

You don’t need to be an expert in anything to post on the WW

Java

Jan 03

You cheer for a crash. I will cheer for Tesla to drop another $28 to $350 in the next two months. That way I can buy it out or let it expire. If I buy it out hopefully I can spin the volatility into a new call around $430 and let the thing rise all it wants. Need to get out from under this

Met a guy who supplies components to lrcx in Kauai. Dude flies from Wyoming to Silicon Valley for work 4 days a week. In on m am Flies home th. Night. Anyway told him I was selling Calls on lrcx at $10 above present value to collect easy $. He said don’t do that. It’s about to pop. I said it already did. I went from like $20 a share to $79. He said well with the component they just got from us it will again. So don’t be selling those calls on it.

So balls. On lrcx I have promised my wife I’m hands off. No more games. And it better pop again. If it does this again my returns will be like investing early on in Google. I’m already like 4x on it. Pop again and I could be 10x.

Java

Jan 03

Replying to

Enjoy your low yield bonds and

Money market funds. I’ve built a fortune before your very eyes. Even listing most of my moves here.

The difference between us is that you are a turtle and I am a shark I operate rationally and without fear. Mostly. Only the numbers get bigger. Hey turtle wanna see my portfolio? You track and record my every move. I’m sure you know all my holdings by now.

If you play blackjack and were allowed to gamble a system. You could bet five dollars. then if you lose you bet 10 if you lose, you bet 20 if you lose you bet 40 then 80 then 160 then 320. At this point it’s pretty low odds you’re going to lose seven hands in a row but most people when they start out betting five dollars. Are pretty unnerved a few minutes later to be out 650 and have to get 650 more on hand 8. But that’s the way it works. Then 1300 and $2600. All on a $5 table.

Now add three 0’s to those. $5,000 at a time. Then the next week $10,000. 20k. 40k etc and you have my world. I always have winders and some losers. Don’t ever forget. The market may be irrational in the moment but is always rational in the long term. You just have to be around to see it. Be in it to win it and survive in the game to benefit. I have standard investments and the options I target $5,000 a week of play money.

I used rudimentary terms. Ones you can understand because you call it gambling. I just explained it in gambling terms. You don’t have the nerve for it. You stay at home. You dine alone locally. You play “golf”. How cute.

I don’t risk the trunk. Only branches. Preferably leaves.

And the key is. All I have to do is win once. I can lose 7-8 times in a row and need to win once. Then the game starts over.

It’s like a 3 point shooter. Firing 7-8 times and missing. Then when the game is on the line. Rising up and drilling the winner.

Thanks for bringing up the opportunity to clarify. It’s why you spent your life taking orders. Staying at home. Investing safe. And watching. That’s why you’re Stay at Home San Clemente. The grocery stick.

BigBallss

Jan 03

Replying to

Tesla is an absolutely wild ride. A true roller coaster. I’m long on it. I didn’t sell any stock in December to avoid paying taxes on it in April 😢

Then watched a nice chunk of change go POOF.

I hope lrcx pops for you but if it does I bet you get pulled back in. 😂

I have a three year plan for the Tesla stock and planned my cash flows accordingly. Let’s see what happens.

BigBallss

Jan 03

Replying to

The truth is many people let the fear of losing money dominate and control them. The fear of losing money paralyzes them and condemns them to a life of fear and indecision. Real estate maybe cheap as fuck but they wait because, “ it’s gonna get cheaper”. The pot of gold is behind the shadow of fear, conquer the fear and you will get to the pot of gold.

Hey, if your thing is 3% low yield bonds, 3% CD’s you can have a nice safe boring life and never have to go to rehab. For me, I like risk because that’s where the big money is. I try to be smart about it to mitigate risk but it’s inherent in investing. I had to go to investor rehab after the bath I took in 2008. And it was not fun at all. Lost money it had taken me 20 years of hard work to accumulate. I doubled down, took the entire sum in my IRA, the only cash I had left and invested it in real estate in 2012. Big balls baby. My wife only asked me one question when I told her that I was taking our safety net and investing it, “ didn’t we just lose all our money in real estate?” Hahahaha. You only live once, make it the best it can be.