12/21 You Bet The Stock Market Would Crash?

If you believed that the market would crash in 2023, you had a tough year. Don't ever listen to politicians , lesson learned? I hope so. A really tough year. A jump off a tall building tough year. If you believed the total opposite, ahem, you had a fantastic year. If you were locked in with 401k money and just holding on for a ride, cheers. You won big. The table was set for a tough year, a Fed committed to raising rates and laying siege to the job market. Early in the year, investment houses pulled cash in the trillions out of stocks and parked it in safe investments.Just hoarding cash. Waiting for the crash to jump back in and pick thru the bones. The brave started making short bets. I'm not that brave. Wasn't me. As usual , Tesla was the one to pick on. As usual, Tesla sent the shorts home licking their wounds. It's an annual ritual. The only threat to Teslas dominance is its ceo and his inability to keep his mouth shut. Nvida delivered blows too. But what about carvana? Who the fuck thought they would bounce back ? The priest had already delivered the last rites. From $4 bucks to $56 bucks a share in a year? Are you kidding?

Of course I had no idea stocks would have this kind of year either. I'm a real estate hack. The only thing I did was keep investing when I saw everyone pulling out. I stayed in when I saw the Fed's aggressive rate hikes were not slowing down the economy. Job losses weren't happening. Consumer confidence wasn't waning.

When people were saying, "don't believe the good numbers". I went contrarian. I'm not trying to big dick it here, not trying to brag either. I am celebrating because like scoring touchdowns, market wins should be celebrated. Throwing a flag for excessive celebration would be a dick move.

Is this rally going to continue? I don't know. The big boys are joining this rally now and that's not always a good sign.

Short sellers lost close to $178 billion in 2023

8 comments

8 Comments

RWC

Dec 22, 2023

I like this one.

BigBallss

Dec 26, 2023

Replying to

So damn true.

Java

Dec 21, 2023

Tesla didn't go anywhere this year. Range bound between 220 and 250. Yawn

troystory

Dec 21, 2023

I held on in my own 401k, which I feel lucky more than anything, but still feel like 2024 will be so volatile that I may park in cash sometime early in the year. Congrats on your moves, your bullishness. Took some balls indeed

Java

Dec 27, 2023

Replying to

I am clearing out the garbage. I have $600,000

Of losses I need to realize to get my taxable income down according to me cpa

I also have 3-4 stocks where I'm

Like omg. What it it goes down? I have lrcx. Starting Jan of 2018 bought 200k. Over the next year bought about 100k more. Probably off of put sales. Maybe cash. Dunno. That 200-300 and dividends is now worth 1.2 mil and it's riding the nividia coattails. I'm seriously thinking it might be time to take my ball and go home. When do you know? $200-300 to 1.2 million In 5-6 years is quite a run. Leave?

BigBallss

Dec 27, 2023

Replying to

Good idea to take those losses now, you will be glad you did when tax time comes around next year. I'm concerned we are primed for a stock market correction if not a crash. This run has brought in a lot of new money. It's almost the perfect time to pull the rug and take suckers money. You've had a very nice run. I have too and so have many other people. Why was our risk rewarded so handsomely? Because so many people ( including investment houses) erred on the side of caution. "Everyone would be broke if Biden won"caused a lot of fear, Then inflation got sticky and more cautious money went into the safe investments. Then rates jumped and more money went into CD's and such. Now, with many betting there won't be a recession the money is coming back into stocks. Economic news, like it or not, believe it's true or not, is mostly positive heading into 2024. When you own a business the smart move is to advertise heavy during the good times, when you want to sell a house or a business the best time to do it is when times are good. It's better to get out a little early than a little late. My investment mix is too risky right now. Too much in stocks to go with too much in real estate and real estate secured loans. I already had one financial heart attack in 2008 but I was in my early 40's and was able to rebuild pretty quick. I'm not a young man anymore and I'm for sure not going to start another company or god forbid get a job. The contrarian move would be to limit your exposure now. But you know what they say, more money has been lost trying to anticipate the market than by market results themselves. Either way, im diversifying my mix a little more, pocketing some cash. The only debt I have is mortgage related at 3% so nothing to pay off there. 2024 is going to be interesting. Can't wait.

Edited

TEE

Dec 27, 2023

Replying to

election year. Doubt the powers in charge allow a huge correction. That hurts their puppet Biden.

2025 is the more interesting year.