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Edited: Feb 02

2/2/24 Labor Market with “Unfathomable Resilience “

Jobs report blows estimates out of the water. Unemployment remains at all time lows. Mortgage rates take a huge hit this morning. I should have locked yesterday but my fawking crystal ball was broken. I didn't expect a bad jobs report but I also didn't expect this kaboom. The stock market was up on the news but this complicates the Fed's next move. How can they drop rates in Q3 like they hinted at with a strong labor market and inflation still not at their target number? Wages also saw an increase.

stock market not gonna like that jobs number, but it is clear the U.S. market is the preferred place to be, as the U.S. dollar will continue to strengthen materially while Europe is barely tip-toeing around a recession and China is facing a property/deflation minefield.

January jobs report: US economy adds 353,000 jobs, blowing past Wall Street expectations

12 comments

12 Comments

BobLinMN-2

Feb 03

Here's some pretty depressing data:

#Bidenomics Update: Gloomiest Jobs Data for January in Decades

BigBallss

Feb 04

Replying to

If you are looking for something to worry about with regards to the economy, here is some red meat. 🥩

It is forward looking tho. As we sit here today, 💪

Consumer retail buying habits have changed I think. E commerce makes retail employees less needed, that's what I think is going on with retail employee layoffs and less hours. Not necessarily a marker for recession. Amazon delivery trucks are everywhere

Retail employees are working fewer hours. Here's why that's a risk to the economy.

Edited

rwc1952

Feb 03

Powell's opening statement pretty much sums up where the Fed stands as of now anyway.

BigBallss

Feb 03

Replying to

No rate cut in March. And the financial markets seem to be ok with that judging by the reaction. Q3 is a long way away but a rate cut anytime this year will send the stock market off to new records.

BobLinMN-2

Feb 02

Job #'s up, but hours of work down. Job #'s may be inflated due to people having to take a second job. Bad weather is being blamed for reduced work hours, but this may not be the case.

BigBallss

Feb 03

Replying to

I have read that work hours were down. I'm still looking for that data to confirm

Daystalker

Feb 02

Government is where the jobs are, 2 government employees for every homeless drug addict. 1 IRS agent for every block. You and your Alias seem pretty smart, hard to believe you get the wool pulled over your eyes so easily.

BigBallss

Feb 02

Replying to

Just the facts sir

"The largest jobs increases in Friday's report were seen in professional and business services, which added 74,000 jobs in February, well above its 2023 monthly average of 14,000 jobs. Meanwhile, healthcare added 70,000 jobs, and retail trade gained 45,000 jobs.

"In the details, the employment gains were more widespread than in prior months – widening out beyond the more concentrated increases in acyclical sectors of government, healthcare, and education," Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a note to their clients "

Daystalker

Feb 02

Replying to

professional and business services are government contracts. This report will also be corrected and adjusted next month on the back page.

BigBallss

Feb 03

Replying to

Historically speaking, residential employment tends to fall before a recession. That has not happened thus far. Most if not all recession models from 2022/2023 needed that.

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TEE

Feb 02

Election year. Don't expect anything drastic to rock the boat.

As good as the economy is rolling. The US keeps shipping money overseas and gives it away. And why are millions of immigrants allowed in every year?

And I have no idea how anyone under 30 is buying a new house in a desirable area. In CA it's a million bucks for a tract shack.

BigBallss

Feb 02

Replying to

The Q3 telegraphed rate drop will help the incumbent president, if it happens. The immigration issue is politics fodder. Not to minimize it as a social issue. I don't know how young people can buy a house, only more inventory, ie construction can solve that. And we need more old people to get out of California and sell their house . prices are incredibly high. So glad I bought a bunch of properties. Best I move I have made. Buy and hold bitches. Buy and hold. Real estate is for buying not selling.

Edited