To test this feature, visit your live site.

Greed Test BB What would you do?

You own a tracking stock. You've had a very good year. One for the record books. You wish you could take it all and stuff it in a mattress.

Oh, the tracking stock. follows Nasdaq. You've seen it go from the teens early this year or last all the way to 50. You have made about a million. on this ONE stock.. Over the last year or so. It's been higher in the past but not for long. Have I mentioned you;re up a MILLION? And about $400,000 of that is in the last month. Got the stage set?

I am asking because when it comes to selling, I am always way too greedy. So here's the scenario.

I'll give you $12,000 today. If the stock goes up another 20? By the end of January? Next 6 weeks? you're out. Goodbye. If it doesn't, you keep the $12,000. In fact, you keep it either way. But if you do and the stock goes up 21%? Say to 61? You're gone and you have to sell at 60.

Oh, if you do sell? You make not only the $12,000 but the $10 a share it goes up? The 20%? Nets you ANOTHER $400,000. Which means you walk away with a gain of 1.4 million. On an initial investment of about $1.1 or $1.2.

Do you do this or do you take the chance that the ride is just gonna go up and up and up and it might go up 30% in the next 6 weeks etc? And therefore stay on the train? $12,000 either way if we say yes.

14 comments

14 Comments

BigBallss

Dec 20, 2023

Just got around to checking the board. I was busy watching where all the Cali top football talent was going today. Not USC.

I think this rally still has more left in the tank. Inflation numbers coming in today from overseas also show cooling inflation in the worlds leading economies. UK and Germany to be specific.That is going to keep the financial markets positive for a while on the idea of rate cuts. I would stay in. I hope you crush it.

BigBallss

Dec 22, 2023

Replying to

You made your move, don't torture yourself by looking back. That's what my wife always tells me anyway. I usually torture myself anyway though by looking back and seeing how I fucked up by selling or not selling. But every now and then I say, " whew, dodged that bullet like I'm in the matrix".

Good luck with it. It's like when my loan officer buddies asked me, " do you think interest rates are going to go up? Should I lock my clients loan?". I would tell them, dude if you lock rates are certain to go down, if you don't lock they will go up". lol. Seems that way anyhow.

Java

Dec 22, 2023

Replying to

So NOW here is the question. And you can't control it. You can only cheer.

Do you root for the stock to hit $60 or higher and cash out with the extra $400,000 youd get if it goes up that far? ORRRRRRrrrr do you root for it to stay under $60, keep the stock and hope it goes even higher in the long term? Oh and in that case the $12,000 you got paid becomes play money. Yours to keep as a game show prize for winning.

BigBallss

Dec 26, 2023

Replying to

The former, cash out the $400k , high 5 and look for the next six banger. 🥂

rwc1952

Dec 20, 2023

I know you're asking BB, but was curious do you own Nasdaq Inc.(NDAQ) or QQQ? The reason I'm asking one is a individual company where the risk is greater, and the latter tracks a index of about 100 Tech companies.

I learned the hard way owning a specific company it was best to keep it around 4% of my assets in case things don't workout. Anytime a winner exceeded that level I would always rebalance and you still retain a position in the stock, and realize a profit too, best of both worlds.

Of course it looks like you're doing so well I should ask for your advice. Nice going.

Java

Dec 20, 2023

Replying to

Didn't think either were companies. One if just triple the effect of the other. I like to jump into tqqq because Nasdaq tends to rise over time and it has a whipsaw effect. Problem is it does the same on the way down. If you dan handle the latter the former is lucrative.

My son rode it all the way up to about $70 and got out a couple years ago. It then went down to the point where it hit $16. Wish I'd bought a ton then.

Java

Dec 20, 2023

Replying to

One of the reasons I don't like the balanced strategy you're talking about is that it reverts you to the mean. And if you want that then go buy a tracking stock and stay there. So in my case I don't feel u balanced because my lack of balance is a stock that reflects the whole market.

I do have others and obviously that pulls me one way or the other. Att. IBM. Meta Amazon lcrx psec etc.

The problem I have w such a balanced strategy is that you miss out on runs because you've invested out of fear. If your investment is vital to your kids college or your retirement plans then you have to do that. But once you get beyond a certain point the rest becomes play money and you can invest strategically. My view is that over time the market goes up more than down. Both in terms of frequency and actual up and down movement. So I'm far more inclined to bet with an index or stock than to short it. I think betting against the market is a historically losing proposition. And I would only do it if a stock has been emotionally run to the stratosphere.

I did that with that whole stupid game stop amc thing awhile back. When

AMC went from about $10 to $100 overnight I bet it wouldn't get to $130 and was paid pretty

Well for it. Won that game a few weeks in a row. Pocketed about $50l each time and then eventually it didn't pay as well. The bandwagon ended. And I realized at that point the risk was greater than the reward and the party was over. So I packed up and went home. I rarely do that. Tried with Tesla as balls knows and every hair on my butt got burned off. Still hard to sit down after that