Right now the auto number is 25%. Not sure of others. It’s a starting point for negotiations. Wall Streets numbers right now have baked in 9%. That appears to be too low.
That means up to and perhaps beyond we are looking at a bumpy road. If Trump takes this game of chicken to wed or even beyond. Look for some real dip and crashes.
Btw much has been made of Europe going after Apple and Google. Trumps threats to them will make any levies far lighter than the headlines.
I think car makers and heavy industry like steel will be in the cross hairs this week. And the s and p more than Nasdaq. Dow more than both.
I am heavy Nasdaq and super heavy tqqq. And yet if we see higher tariffs and the game goes longer. I think everyone will get beat up. Analysts have already dropped year end projection for sp500 from 6600 to 5900 and these games. Very disruptive. Can and will cause recession.
On the bright side of that a recession will allow him to get the lower interest rates he wants. Like curing a cold by chopping off your head.
I would pick your favorite stocks. Or in my case tqqq. And look for a crash. Anticipate a bad day. And if you get it. Buy. Jump. Hard to tkme the market but I think this is it. We have already corrected. We may dip more. And this is all an artificial creation. Which may bring about economic reality through his own ego an stupidity. But even that doesn’t last forever.
What I think happens is that he settles for about 10%. Accomplishes nothing. Declares victory. And then goes and fights chicks in bathrooms or the scouts letting in girls or people who aren’t sufficiently patriotic or something. Meaning he moves on. Wall Street hates a president who is meddling and interfering with the economy. He likely knows this
So look this week for a chance to jump in. I am going to see if I can get my cash ready. Not jazzed about jumping
More into tqqq but that’s where I see my biggest opportunity for stuffing already own. Oh yeah. I suggest buying stuff you already own that you like Stay in your comfort zone. Now isn’t the time to go shopping for new stocks
https://x.com/magavoice/status/1906766748482953268?s=46
Tqqq is at 55.50 today. This is a good price. Also a reaction to current events. I think it bounces.
I have puts sold on this to buy 6,000 shares on Friday if it stays at 56 or below. Been waiting for it to get here while it was farting around in the low 60s. I would prefer to buy Apple Google or Amazon or Microsoft. However this has elements of all of those and its most affordable as it’s been in a long time. Didn’t think I’d see this dip happen again.
Hoping it’s still here in 4 days. Might even buy some outside of that.
tariffs will not have a universal effect on the US economy,
contrary to the drumbeat of the press, so get this out of your head.
tariffs are very industry specific and in some cases like automobiles, tariffs are very product specific; e.g. a Honda Passport assembled in Lincoln, Ala. will only have tariffs on offshore content until Honda sources domestic replacements. It is more likely that a Ford F-150 will increase in price than a Tesla. Chynese cars will have tariffs for the foreseeable future and may be denied domestic investment in US manufacturing
I already published some data on this here
certain industry-wide tariffs will be near permanent to prevent the re-export of jobs: steel, aluminum, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, etc Trump has called these a matter of national security. He is super transparent about this. call these Strategic Tariffs.
certain tariffs are bargaining chips covering strategic industries, such a oil and energy, if we need energy for a more strategic industry such as AI, we will import it until we again achieve energy dominance. these tariffs are the most likely to be 'fluid'. if you want to short something in this sector, wind generation is dead. This is one class of Bargaining Chip tariffs
the second class of Bargaining Chip tariffs are by country or market and are best called Reciprocal tariffs. the EU has already dropped their pants on their automobile market barrier tariffs on US automobiles to 2% matching existing US auto tariffs. again, some of these tariffs are product specific like the 245% Canadian tariff on US sourced cheese. if you are looking for opportunities here, you must be a subject matter expert and not a day trader.
Most of these Reciprocal tariffs may have little to no effect on US prices, for example how much Canadian cheese do we import, when the US practically throws cheese away due to dairy subsidies? the next effect on US prices will be directly related to both the percentage of products imported versus total market and the ability to source elsewhere. in some cases the next effect will be zero and in some cases only a small portion of the market maybe affected by tariffs, like say the 10-20% portion that is imported. net market effect will likely be only 2.5-5% price increase industry wide. These prices increases could be more than offset by a country like Chyna devaluing their currency or increasing industry subsidies to maintain market share(s). edit: also a strengthening US dollar will more than offset these subsidies.
finally, other tariffs are hybrids being both Strategic and Bargaining chips like energy above, with the Canadian plywood being a great example. we need plywood to build out $4 trillion in infrastructure. Trump is not going to let a plywood shortage hinder US development. we will source it a a competitive price from Canada or elsewhere if not domestically
to really find opportunities, you really need to consult with industry specific subject matter experts and not MSNBC, Reuters, and Forbes editorials that monger fear for political gain and profits
or you can always become a subject matter expert yourself on say coffee, Teslas, or energy, if you are not already
executive summary: come April 2, tariffs will have little to no net effect on the US economy. look for some early price gouging in specific products or industries, but any mid to long term net effect on prices may be offset by countries devaluing their currency or increasing industry subsidies to maintain market share(s), or a strengthening dollar. we are the world (marketplace)
I hope this helps
So does this make tomorrow Tariff Eve? Do we put stockings out and fill them with shit Chinese electronics?
Imagine thinking you know more about economics than Donald Trump and Scott Bessent.
Wild.