What a week this was.
After the Fed meeting, mortgage rates saw the 5's (5.99% lol) for the first time in 6 months, from a high of 7.37% ( 30 year fixed) after the Fed raised rates on Wednesday by only 25bps. Fed said this week at its meeting that we have seen the worst of inflation and we are entering a new period of "disinflation".
Then today the jobs report comes out and the economy looks like the Terminator. The Fed just cannot kill it.
Unemployment continues to be incredibly low and a long ways from what the Fed views as healthy.
Mortgage rates reacted to the jobs report today like an allergic kid eating peanut butter. They boomed higher with three reprices (all to the worse). The expectation now is that the Fed will have to continue its rate hikes.
Job openings are over 11,000,000
Jobless claims are under 200,000.
The unemployment rate in America is 3.4%.
02/07/23, 1 PM EST- Powell in a question and answer session in DC. He stated we are just starting to see the disinflationary process, “but it has a long way to go.”
“Jobs report stronger than expected, shows why it’ll be a long process.” Ongoing rate increases will be appropriate.”
This is all about getting inflation down to 2%.
Next FED meeting is March 20. Another 25 basis point increase? 50?
This is some Pravda level disinformation.
The U6 unemployment rate in Jan23 is 7.4%
The labor participation rate up less than 1% since the 2020 election.
People getting their jobs back that were taken away is not job creation…
Yes, because this won't be revised and corrected on Page 8 in a few months.
That one economist in the article mentions wage growth is easing from year to year. That’s something to keep an eye on.
The disinflation statement by the Fed might be accurate there has been a trend since July that supports their view. Even though inflation remains elevated at approx. 6.5%, the 3 and 6 month CPI figures have declined somewhat. Of course don’t tell this to anyone at the grocery store or filling up LOL.