Inventory, we need to get to ~1.9m units to achieve balance between Buyers and Sellers. The Fed needs to slow down sales to achieve this. Their move jacking up rates is working like a charm. This homebuying season is dead. analysts, “We need some unemployment to kick in.” Fed, “hold up, we will be right back”
Happy Fathers Day Brad. Thank you for that, it was a good day . The balance of inventory to demand has been off for a few years now. It goes back to builders getting caught with their pants down in 2008. They overbuilt then, but This time around they haven’t been building as aggressively. The Fed’s move to raise rates is exactly to bring balance to supply and demand And put a stop to the silliness we have been seeing. We are already seeing a few more properties hit as Sellers hurry to list. Also, as properties start to hang around without offers , that moves the needle in inventory. The problem is we are so savagely unhealthy right now in terms of balance, it will take some time. Remember, we are right in the midst of home buying season and homes aren’t moving. We need to get to about 1.9 million units in inventory to make it a buyers market. To bring balance. I think it will be another 9-12 months . The key recession flags are all up right now , except unemployment. But it’s coming. Once rates start impacting corporate profits, the layoffs will begin. This chart shows historical levels of inventory, 2008 peaks and steady declines since. as inventory drops, prices climb, leading to the unhealthy balance we have today. As long as the Fed keeps increasing rates, we will see rising inventory and opportunities to buy. If the Fed blinks and stops the rise in rates, that will be bad news. Inventory is as important as rates and I will be watching it closely. Watch your target neighborhoods, you should be seeing slight increases already. The tr3nd right now is lower sales, the trend is our friend.
Inventory is already up 18% year over year, wait until next months numbers, they will be ugly. Inventory is increasing at a much more rapid pace now than what is normal for this time of the year. By next week will surpass inventory levels of same time 2021. Landscape is changing rapidly.
Austin and Boise listings are waaay up. Austin listings up 135%! Boise 124%.
Look how things have changed for Sellers: They are dropping listing prices everywhere. (These are the places with bigger drops). You didn’t see these price reductions a few months ago. Eye popping tr3nd.
Glad you brought it up… so last question (for now)): Inventory,, Why does there seem to be so little of it currently? Why are owners (corporations) leaving houses vacant instead of renting selling? Sorry, last question,, when so you think this flood of inventory will start hitting the market?
Inventory, we need to get to ~1.9m units to achieve balance between Buyers and Sellers. The Fed needs to slow down sales to achieve this. Their move jacking up rates is working like a charm. This homebuying season is dead. analysts, “We need some unemployment to kick in.” Fed, “hold up, we will be right back”
Happy Fathers Day Brad. Thank you for that, it was a good day . The balance of inventory to demand has been off for a few years now. It goes back to builders getting caught with their pants down in 2008. They overbuilt then, but This time around they haven’t been building as aggressively. The Fed’s move to raise rates is exactly to bring balance to supply and demand And put a stop to the silliness we have been seeing. We are already seeing a few more properties hit as Sellers hurry to list. Also, as properties start to hang around without offers , that moves the needle in inventory. The problem is we are so savagely unhealthy right now in terms of balance, it will take some time. Remember, we are right in the midst of home buying season and homes aren’t moving. We need to get to about 1.9 million units in inventory to make it a buyers market. To bring balance. I think it will be another 9-12 months . The key recession flags are all up right now , except unemployment. But it’s coming. Once rates start impacting corporate profits, the layoffs will begin. This chart shows historical levels of inventory, 2008 peaks and steady declines since. as inventory drops, prices climb, leading to the unhealthy balance we have today. As long as the Fed keeps increasing rates, we will see rising inventory and opportunities to buy. If the Fed blinks and stops the rise in rates, that will be bad news. Inventory is as important as rates and I will be watching it closely. Watch your target neighborhoods, you should be seeing slight increases already. The tr3nd right now is lower sales, the trend is our friend.
Inventory is already up 18% year over year, wait until next months numbers, they will be ugly. Inventory is increasing at a much more rapid pace now than what is normal for this time of the year. By next week will surpass inventory levels of same time 2021. Landscape is changing rapidly.
Austin and Boise listings are waaay up. Austin listings up 135%! Boise 124%.
Look how things have changed for Sellers: They are dropping listing prices everywhere. (These are the places with bigger drops). You didn’t see these price reductions a few months ago. Eye popping tr3nd.
Glad you brought it up… so last question (for now)): Inventory,, Why does there seem to be so little of it currently? Why are owners (corporations) leaving houses vacant instead of renting selling? Sorry, last question,, when so you think this flood of inventory will start hitting the market?
thank you, and happy Father’s Day.
Lol, people making the same mistakes as in 2008.