Optimism about the economy surges to 2 year high

1:56 makes me think this guy is a smart sounding idiot. He says January 2007 the closing of new century financial, he thought at the time "was a big Ho hum".it so happens that's my world and I was in the middle of that storm. When New Century Financial closed it was like a nuclear bomb. At our company we called a board meeting and the mood was similar to a funeral. We KNEW it was the end . We were partners with Bear Stearns, sold them all our product. They warned us THAT DAY things would change and they did. Our loans went from a pricing of 1.03 to 98. Every loan we originated was a loser and the more loans we did the more money we lost. I'm telling you NCEN collapsing was a watershed moment. And we all knew it immediately. It's the day the world changed. Like when the asteroid hit and killed the dinosaurs. Everything this guy said after that loses credibility. But of course, eventually the economy will sputter it operates in cycles. And the Fed will eventually slow down the economy. That's their intent. The rate increase is crushing real estate right now, it just hasn't spread to other sectors yet. But a good chance it will. The key, as I have stated various times, the labor market hasn't broken yet. Where is the recession..? it is not here yet but I agree on the point at the end, it could be lagging and will arrive in the next 12 months.

It's like the people that started calling a real estate bubble in 2003. Every fucking day with the real estate bubble. For 5 years, every fucking day. Eventually they were right, same with this. If you predict rain every morning for a year, you are likely to be right on some of those days.

A recession is definitely coming, it's part of the economic cycle. Eventually they wil be right. But for the last 3 years the atm has been spitting out cash.

Are a lot of people in your circle unemployed and hurting? No one in my circle is hurting. And my circle includes a lot folks in real estate and it's ancillary businesses. Business is very slow but none are losing their house or their toys. When a national event like a recession or a pandemic hits, you see it all around you. I'm not seeing it right now. In my business I see a recession almost immediately. Every time since 1987 I have seen it almost immediately. Im not saying it isn't going to happen in fact I'm saying the opposite it s going to happen. I'm just saying it hasn't happened yet. I'm on the record on this very board saying it will happen. But it will not happen until we see widespread layoffs. If Unemployment claims get above 350,000 a week, watch out. But we are not there now.

Ask God to move a mountain for you and you will wake up with shovel next to you. Gotta do your own work.

Exactly! Record low unemployment and inflation has been coming down when you look at the year to year. Still a ways to go but the direction is right.

One of the interesting things happening right now is the hyper partisan nature of US politics. Many are predicting a recession not just because rising rates would seem to make it likely but because they WANT a downturn. They think it will help a Republican get elected president. As soon as that happens, if that happens, they will be predicting an upturn in the economy, no matter what the facts indicate. It will be fake news just like they call the numbers now fake. Really interesting to watch people ignore the facts and give in to their emotions. Recessions and crashes are always likely to happen. The tricky part is WHEN.