The deal: 5 years, $182 million
Grade: A-
At his best, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell is as good as any starting pitcher on the planet -- and he has stretches when he's so dominant that he invokes names like Sandy Koufax, Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson, those great power left-handers of the past. Just look at his final 14 starts of 2024 with the San Francisco Giants (after returning from an injury following a slow start): 5-0, 1.23 ERA, .123 average allowed, 114 SO in 80⅓ IP. Or his final 22 starts of 2023 with the San Diego Padres: 13-3, 1.18 ERA, .154 average, 180 SO in 130 IP. Or his final 14 starts of 2022: 7-5, 2.19 ERA, .209 average, 105 SO in 78 IP. Of those 50 starts, he gave up one run or no runs in 38 of them.
There have also, however, been frustrating bouts of inconsistency, wildness and minor injuries - the only two seasons he topped 130 innings have been his two Cy Young seasons of 2018 and 2023. He also has
topped 2.2 WAR in only those Cy Young years. Because of a combination of high pitch counts and wearing down later in games (his career OPS the first time through the order is .580, but it jumps to .700 the third time), he has completed at least eight innings only once in his career -- the no-hitter he threw this past season.
Throw it all together and this is still the right move for the Los Angeles Dodgers, even given the general risk for signing free agent starters in their 30s (Snell is entering his age-32 season). There's always a big risk with free agent pitchers of any age (especially at this dollar amount), but the Dodgers did need a starter to replace free agents Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. For an organization that can print its playoff tickets in spring training -- the Dodgers have made 12 straight trips to the postseason -- Snell's usual strong second half performance projects as a huge plus given the Dodgers' inability to field healthy rotations come October the past two years. And while Snell has made 30 starts only twice, the injuries have been more of the minor type, with no Tommy John surgeries or other long, debilitating issues in his past.
The stuff speaks for itself: 96 mph four-seamer, knee-buckling curveball (batters hit .111 off it in 2024 with a ridiculous 50% swing-and-miss rate), wipeout slider
(primarily used against the few lefties who dare stay in the lineup to face him) and a plus changeup (one home run off it last season). His 11.2 career K's per nine leads
all active starting pitchers. After walking a career-worst 13.3% of the batters he faced in 2023 (5.0 walks run off it last season). His 11.2 career K's per nine leads all active starting pitchers. After walking a career-worst 13.3% of the batters he faced in 2023 (5.0 walks per nine), he lowered those numbers to 10.5% and 3.8 in 2024. Indeed, the stuff is so good that, if he remains healthy, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Snell have his best seasons ahead of him -- just as Carlton and Johnson dominated into their late 30s.
So, yes, the Dodgers are coming off a World Series title- and adding Snell and Shohei Ohtani to the rotation. Back at the turn of the century, Boston Red Sox president Larry Lucchino infamously referred to the rival New York Yankees as the "Evil Empire." No doubt, the Dodgers' National League West rivals in San Diego, San Francisco and Arizona - as well as fans across the nation - might be thinking of the Dodgers in those terms right now. And that's with Juan Soto still on the market!
They should still resign buhler and pursue sasaki.
Snell. Glasnow. Yamamoto. Buehler. Sasaki. Gonsolin
Injured and returning Kershaw and ohtani
Guarantee you 2 or more of these guys will go down for the year. One of them before ohtani and Kershaw are ready to return June 1