How the banged-up Dodgers rotation compares to its fellow NL contenders
7h ago
My favorite baseball tweet of the year came from Patrick Daugherty, who actually is an NFL writer for NBC Sports.
Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Bobby Miller have combined for 12.1 WAR since 2015 (aka Friedman). That's less than Michael Wacha, Wade Miley, Kyle Gibson, etc. lol
Every March: Man, the Dodgers have too many starting pitchers!
Every October 11: Man the Dodgers, who are down 2-1 to the five seed in the NLDS, are probably done if they can't get at least two innings from Joe Kelly tonight
Truer words were never spoken, right? And here the Dodgers go again.
Eleven of their starting pitchers have made at least one trip to the injured list. Five remain on the IL, including the team’s two highest-paid pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. What the Dodgers’ postseason rotation will look like is anyone’s guess.
Considering the rate of injuries this season, the same could be said about virtually any National League contender. But at the moment, which rotation would you rather have, the Dodgers’, Philadelphia Phillies’or Arizona Diamondbacks’? Starting pitching remains the Atlanta Braves’ foundation, even without Spencer Strider. The San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers are perhaps not as strong, but they’re not weak, either.
The Dodgers can present reasonable counterpoints to any suggestion that they are headed for another October fall. But at the moment, not even a first-round bye is assured, so they might need to get through four postseason rounds rather than three. And the way the NL Division Series schedule lines up, rotation depth will be all the more important. Four starters will be required if the best-of-five does not end in a sweep.
In the best-case scenario, the Dodgers envision a postseason rotation that would include both Glasnow and Yamamoto, along with the club’s big trade acquisition, Jack Flaherty. Glasnow likely will need more than the minimum 15 days to recover from his supposedly minor case of elbow tendinitis, but the team expects him and Yamamoto to return by mid-September. Other options exist as well.
Gavin Stone has been the most consistent member of the team’s rotation. Walker Buehler and/or Bobby Miller could show enough improvement to factor into the mix. And a certain future Hall of Fame left-hander, Clayton Kershaw, appears to be rounding into form.
But seriously, what are the odds of the Dodgers getting positive outcomes from even most of those pitchers?
Yamamoto hasn’t pitched since June 15. Glasnow frequently is hurt and already has exceeded his career-high in innings. Stone is on the verge of surpassing his career-high, and Buehler and Miller have a combined 6.92 ERA in 18 starts. Kershaw, who made his season debut after offseason shoulder surgery on July 25, should be fresher than he was in previous postseasons, assuming he gets through the next five weeks.
Now let’s review the Dodgers’ potential competition in October:
Phillies
Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola aren’t exactly newcomers to the postseason. Cristopher Sánchez, though well past his career-high in innings, seemingly is back on track. The big question is lefty Ranger Suárez, who has been out since July 22 with lower back soreness and is expected to return Saturday in Kansas City.
A larger concern, as pointed out by The Athletic’s Matt Gelb: Including a bullpen that is showing some cracks, the team ERA since the start of July is 4.91.
Diamondbacks
The Arizona rotation entered Friday ranked only 27th in the majors in ERA, but that stat is deceptive.
Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly recently returned after missing much of the season with injuries, providing newfound depth. Zac Gallen also was out nearly a month, but he and Brandon Pfaadt have been reasonably consistent. Jordan Montgomery is still trying to regain his equilibrium after signing late. Ryne Nelson is another possibility.
Like the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks might end up scrambling the rest of the regular season, trying to get their rotation straight. But at the moment, they’re drawing from a healthier pool of starters.
Padres
Dylan Cease is good enough to dominate a postseason. Michael King, in his first full season as a starter, is still pitching well after blowing past his career-high in innings. Joe Musgrove is building up after missing more than two months with elbow inflammation and another 15 days with triceps tendinitis. And Yu Darvish, sidelined since late May because of multiple injuries and more recently a private family matter, still might return.
Without Darvish, Matt Waldron, Randy Vásquez or Martín Pérez could serve as a potential Game 4 starter. The Padres, after adding relievers Jason Adam and Tanner Scott, also are well-equipped to run some form of a bullpen game, if necessary.
Brewers
Don’t ask how their starting pitching is holding together after the trade of Corbin Burnes and injuries to Brandon Woodruff, Wade Miley and top prospect Robert Gasser. The Brewers continue to defy the odds, albeit in a weak NL Central. Come the postseason, they’ll piece together a rotation, unleash their ferocious bullpen and see where it takes them.
Freddy Peralta is ostensibly the Brewers’ ace, but Tobias Myers, a classic Brewers underdog, might be supplanting him. Two years ago, Myers had a horrid minor-league season, going 1-15 with a 7.82 ERA in three different organizations. Now he’s the Brewers’ answer to Paul Skenes.
Between Peralta, Myers, Colin Rea, Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale, the Brewers will figure out something. They always do, don’t they?
Braves
Just when it appeared Austin Riley’s season-ending fractured right hand might prove devastating to the Braves’ playoff chances, the six-time defending NL East champions showed renewed life against the Phillies, particularly with their rotation.
Reynaldo López returned in the opener from a two-week absence with forearm inflammation to strike out 10 in five innings. Max Fried, in his fourth start back from his own forearm issue, produced one of his best performances of the season in the middle game. And with Spencer Schwellenbach outstanding in the finale, the Braves took two of three without even using Chris Sale, the leading contender for the NL Cy Young.
One-third of the Braves’ current lineup — Whit Merrifield, Ramón Laureano and Gio Urshela — is comprised of players who were released this season. But if Sale and Fried got hot, Atlanta still could be a handful in a short series.
Of the teams that might slip past the Braves, the San Francisco Giants, with Blake Snell, Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Kyle Harrison, probably would field the most formidable rotation. But the Dodgers still could end up well-positioned, particularly if they clinch a bye and avoid the wild-card round.
The Dodgers look at it this way: They’ve compiled the best record in the majors despite a number of injuries to key players. Most of those players are back, or reasonably close to it. The return of Blake Treinen fortified a top-five bullpen. And the return of third baseman Max Muncy and arrival of shortstop/center fielder Tommy Edman gives the Dodgers the ability to outscore just about any opponent.
Maybe it will turn out that way. Maybe the Dodgers’ pitching, starting and relief, will be an absolute force. But until proven otherwise, my favorite tweet of the year will ring true.
If the Dodgers’ season indeed came down to Joe Kelly, would anyone be surprised?