Let’s compare
From the NYTimes
The Hollywood Walk of Fame won’t have anything on the number of stars that will take the field when the New York Yankees face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series starting Friday at Dodger Stadium.
It’ll be Shohei Ohtani vs. Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts vs. Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Gerrit Cole. It’ll be the biggest market on the East Coast battling the biggest on the West. It’ll be the best record in the American League vs. the best record in Major League Baseball.
But who’s better?
Let’s compare.
Catcher: Austin Wells vs. Will Smith
Wells, a lefty hitter, will get down-ballot votes for American League Rookie of the Year for posting a .718 OPS and hitting 13 home runs. But his October has been a different story. After getting hits in each of his first two playoff games, Wells went 0-for-19 before Game 4 of the ALCS, when he hit a solo homer. Defensively, he’s been fine.
Smith’s October has been a struggle and has, in several ways, mirrored his struggles in the second half of the season — he’s gone 6-for-38 this postseason, with a .605 OPS after producing a .704 OPS after July. Yet the hits he’s had have loomed large, from a big two-run shot in Game 4 of the National League Division Series against the Padres to another two-run homer in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series against the Mets. Dodgers pitchers have raved about working with him, partly crediting him for their run of 33 straight scoreless innings earlier this October.
First base: Anthony Rizzo vs. Freddie Freeman
Rizzo missed the AL Division Series with two broken fingers on his right hand. He returned for the AL Championship Series and was surprisingly steady at the plate, going 6-for-14 (.429) with two walks and an intentional walk. He missed several defensive plays he should have made, though the Yankees continue to say they’re not worried about his defense. They may start Jon Berti vs. righties.
The hope for the Dodgers is that five days off between series will give Freeman time to rest his sprained right ankle. It won’t be fully healed regardless, though, and Freeman hasn’t logged an extra-base hit so far in October — his swing isn’t right, and the ankle might be a big part of it. Max Muncy is quality insurance here, but the best Dodgers lineup has Freeman going right.
Second base: Gleyber Torres vs. Kiké Hernández, Chris Taylor, Gavin Lux platoon
After a down first half, Torres was excellent as the Yankees’ leadoff hitter in September and that carried into the playoffs, where he has slashed .297/.400/.432 with a .832 OPS. He’s prone to sloppiness defensively and on the basepaths and the Yankees might sub him late for a pinch runner.
Hernández was acquired for October, and it shows — he had a .654 OPS in the regular season and has an .863 OPS with five runs batted in in October despite not becoming a regular until the Dodgers’ fourth playoff game. Lux has looked more like his midsummer self but is not 100 percent with a hip flexor issue. Taylor has struggled this year but has reached five times in 15 October plate appearances.
Shortstop: Anthony Volpe vs. Tommy Edman
Volpe, last year’s AL Gold Glove winner, has been disappointing with the bat over his first two regular seasons in the major leagues. But he’s stepped it up in the playoffs, making lots of loud contact. He’s had a hit in seven of the Yankees’ nine playoff games and he’s hitting .310 with a .804 OPS. He grew up in New Jersey idolizing Derek Jeter and he’s hoping to capture some of Jeter’s postseason magic.
Miguel Rojas may return to the Dodgers’ roster this round, but Rojas’ torn adductor makes Edman the ideal choice at shortstop right now (and opens up center field as well). The NLCS MVP has been particularly dominant from the right side of the plate, emerging as a serious weapon against some of the Yankees’ left-handed options.
Third base: Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. Max Muncy/Kiké Hernández
Chisholm is still learning third base and he’s been a bit shaky at the position. He’s been maybe the Yankees’ worst offensive performer, too, with just five hits and 11 strikeouts in 34 at-bats (.147). Chisholm riled up Kansas City Royals fans when he said their team got lucky in one of their wins over the Yankees in the ALDS.
Muncy reached base at an unprecedented clip in Dodgers postseason history in the NLCS (17 times total, including a stretch of 12 in a row), and he still wasn’t the NLCS MVP. Between Muncy and Hernández, the Dodgers have gotten incredible production from the hot corner so far this October.
Left field: Alex Verdugo vs. Teoscar Hernández
The lefty-hitting Verdugo started the playoffs hot but has sputtered to a .544 OPS. He’s made every start despite the Yankees keeping highly regarded rookie Jasson Domínguez on the roster. The Yankees like Verdugo because he’s their best defensive option in left field.
Hernández absolutely torched the Yankees at Yankee Stadium earlier this season, going 6-for-12 with three homers and nine runs batted in in that series. He struggled early in the NLCS, starting 0-for-18, but collected a pair of hits in the pennant clincher. He’s an incredibly dangerous bat, especially against left-handed pitching.
Center field: Aaron Judge vs. Andy Pages/Kiké Hernández
The good: Judge had a signature playoff moment when he hit a home run off Cleveland Guardianscloser Emmanuel Clase in Game 3 of the ALCS. The bad: His career postseason struggles continue. He’s hit just .161 (5-for-31) with 13 strikeouts and two total home runs. The Yankees probably won’t beat the Dodgers if Judge doesn’t come alive.
Pages showed some of his upside in a losing effort in Game 5 of the NLCS, becoming the first Dodgers center fielder since Duke Snider to hit two home runs in a postseason game. There’s some real swing-and-miss to his game, but he’s got pop and a heck of an arm in center field. Expect Kiké Hernández to log some starts here, too, with Kevin Kiermaier coming in late for defense.
Right field: Juan Soto vs. Mookie Betts
Soto may have had his Yankee Moment when he crushed a go-ahead, three-run shot in the 10th inning of a series-clinching Game 5 win in the ALCS. He’s been huge, hitting .333 (11-for-33) with three homers and as many walks (seven) as strikeouts. Soto won a World Series with the Washington Nationals in 2019. He needs to show the Yankees how it’s done.
Remember when there was concern about Betts’ October production? Through 52 plate appearances this October he’s hitting .296/.404/.659 with four homers and 12 RBIs. His NLCS (1.182 OPS) was his best in any postseason series ever that lasted longer than two games.
DH: Giancarlo Stanton vs. Shohei Ohtani
“Playoff G,” as Stanton has become known, has been huge once again in the postseason for the Yankees. He has five home runs, including three in his last three games, and he’s posted a 1.179 OPS. Stanton loves this time of year. He’s got 16 bombs in 36 career playoff games. Having grown up not far from Dodger Stadium, he’s going to want to put on a show in his hometown.
On a field full of superstars, there might not be a bigger one than Ohtani. Some pitchers have neutralized him this October — Yu Darvish, Tanner Scott and Sean Manaea – to an extent. He went 1-for-15 against them, with 10 strikeouts. Against everyone else this October? He’s 11-for-27 with three homers, 11 walks and 10 runs batted in, a slash line of .407/.579/.741 and a 1.320 OPS. The Yankees will need to find a neutralizer.
Starting rotation
Winning the ALCS in five games gave the Yankees a chance to reset their rotation and pitch ace Gerrit Cole in Game 1 of the World Series. The Yankees have four legitimate starters in Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, who will also get AL Rookie of the Year consideration. But their starters have only completed five innings in three of their nine games — twice by Cole and once by Rodón. Cole needs to set the tone in the opener and help the Yankees escape from L.A. with at least one victory.
There are serious questions here, but one perk they didn’t have in the NLCS: The Dodgers will have Yoshinobu Yamamoto available more than once. The Dodgers have had a starter pitch into the sixth inning just twice this October (both by Jack Flaherty, who has been up and down this postseason). It’s partially by design with a bullpen equipped to shorten games, but they’ll need at least some length out of their three starters (Yamamoto, Flaherty, Walker Buehler) to prevent their relievers from being overexposed.
Bullpen
The Yankees’ relief unit was exhausted by the end of the ALCS. Closer Luke Weaver (four saves, one blown) and righty Clay Holmes each pitched in every game except for one. Weaver (10 1/3 innings) has actually thrown more frames than Schmidt (9 2/3 innings), who has made two starts. They likely will rely on lefty Nestor Cortes, a starter-turned-reliever, and lefty groundball specialist Tim Hill to try to hold down Ohtani and Freeman. Tommy Kahnle and his changeup could also factor in against the Dodgers’ lefty hitters. With Ian Hamilton (calf) injured, Mark Leiter Jr. will probably stay in his place.
Two things can be true: the Dodgers have relied heavily on their bullpen, and their top leverage arms have been largely kept fresh. Such was the beauty of going with the long game twice in the NLCS. Among their leverage relievers, only Blake Treinen and Anthony Banda have appeared more than five times (Treinen for a team-leading eight innings this October). Varying looks will help maintain the effectiveness of a group that has emerged as a real strength and could potentially get Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol back for the World Series.
From MLB Now:
Jeff Passan on Dan Patrick’s show:
From the Next Round w/Buster Olney:
From Flippin’ Bats: