So I have talked about some of the kids we coached over the years. Two of them reaching AA. One actually was on a 40 man roster for awhile but I don't think ever made it beyond AA. Not sure how that works. Maybe they were trying to protect him from claims.
Anyway, that's not the story here. I think we all assume with modern science that Tommy John surgery is something any kid can go get, recover from and then return to his normal self. We see Walker have two and think wow, look at that. Never heard of anyone coming back from 3. Though Buhler is so young, that could happen.
Reggie Lawson was one of the two kids mentioned. He was a sandwich pick between round 1 and 2 when they had them. Probably like 50 overall. Padres actually shut him down DURING his Senior season saying they'd seen enough and didn't want him to get hurt. Wanted him to rest before rookie ball that summer. $1.9 million signing bonus.
During LL and travel, this kid was the SS, the starting P, the cleanup hitter, leadoff. Could do it all. Problem was always the family. Didn't have a great one and Dad was a real issue. Dad got him bounced from teams sadly. Mouthy, alcohol, etc. I don't doubt that $1.9 m is gone if dad got anywhere near it.
Think he was a starter and posted eras of 4-5. Nothing special. Meanwhile my oldest son, same age, went to UC Irvine and graduated with a CS degree.
Went from Rookie ball to low A, high A, AA each year Nice progression Then stalled. Then looking at ERAS of 8.3, 5.3. 4.7 I'm amazed he got promoted. But he was a bonus baby and 6-4 Probably threw 95 so why not. Gets stuck in AA doing same stats a couple years.
COVID hits and about the same time he has TJ surgery. Probably a good time for that, if there is one. Misses all of 2020 and most of 2021. Posts a 9.4 ERA in his 2021 comeback and preps for 2022.
2022 He's now coming back from TJ not one year or year and a half like you read with some of these guys. I mean, 1.5 years to get on the mound but now it's 2 years. Result? 5.6 ERA at AA. He's now been stuck in AA from 2019 to 2022. Hangs it up. Quits. Can't get people out, arm didn't recover, 25 years old.
2023 sat out. Don't know what he did
2024 appears he's trying to make a comeback. Same team. AA Padres organization. 10 games, in he's a reliever now. 7.83 ERA
So I don't know if he hit a wall and wasn't ever good enough to begin with. Happens. Or if it's TJ that doesn't stick. I am just saying that not all of these stories have happy endings. Unlike a San Clemente trip to a Garden Grove massage parlor.
what choice do these players have. if they want to continue in baseball, they need to go under the knife. there are no guarantees.
All good commentary.
My recommendation is to actually watch him pitch. Does he always fall behind? Is he a high pitch count guy?
Great fastball but crappy secondary pitches? Just inaccurate and walks a ton of guys. Some guys have the stuff but they cant throw strikes consistently. (909 aka Joe Kelly)
My best friend’s nephew who I’ve talked about here a few times was the number 14 overall pick out of Pasadena area and has since been on five or six major league staffs.
His highlight was beating Chris Sale (when he was good) back in Boston a few years ago. A lights out game for him. Well the story on him was he was great against lineups the first time through and then progressively worse.
Not saying, I buy it, but that was the narrative. I didn’t study him that closely.
In my late 20's I threw my back out during a weekend getaway with the Mrs. and my Dr. jokingly told me I needed John Holmes surgery when I told him how I did it. I miss that dude, funniest guy I have ever met, total nerd but always had a zinger or two in the exam room.