Arguing with Java got me thinking.
His position IMO was that of your picking Top 5 your “expecting” a HOF career.
I was thinking that was “aggressive”.
Productive, impactful, multiple all pros sure.
But HOF is whole other level IMO.
Well Started looking into the numbers.
Showed that since 1936, 1st Round Draft Picks are apprx 17% likely to make HOF.
That number seemed a bit high to me but it is the number. I was thinking more like 10-15% so intuitively I was actually very close.
But I was thinking the early 30/40/50’s with far less teams, different playing styles could be impacting this “analysis”.
So reran the data from 1980 To recent 2023 HOF inductees who were drafted in 2007.
So 27 years of data.
NFL had 28 teams in 1980.
NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002.
62 total 1st round draft picks have made the HOF through 2007. Out of 776 total draft picks. Thats ONLY 7.9%. So 2.3 inductees a year out of 28/32 picks.
I then looked at Top 5 picks only. There were 28 future HOFers picked in these early slots. Out of the total 776 picks that is only 3.6%. But if I adjust for only the Top 5 total picks (135 picks) your at a 20% hit rate.
Thats 1.1 per year.
For comparison, there were 13 HOFers selected in the 2nd round for said period led by Brett Favre and Howie Long.
There were 8 HOFers selected in 3rd round. John Lynch was one of those. Joe Montana from class of ‘79 just missed my cutoff.
So adjusting for modern football didnt really move the needle on choosing HOFers in the draft. Basically exactly the same.
The league does a good job of evaluating HOF potential shown by 1st round dominance (62 R1 vs 28 R2 vs 13
R3) as well as early pick dominance (20% in top 5 vs 7.9% in R1)
Facts show that 8 Out of 10 Top 5 picks DONT MAKE the HOF.
8 is much bigger than 2. By a factor of 4.
So i would say expecting a Top 5 pick to be a HOF is actually very improbable.
How do you see it?
This is my data source.
https://www.profootballhof.com/hall-of-famers/hall-of-famers-by-draft-round/
The draft is a crapshoot. Especially for quarterbacks. Pro and college are different games.
I would guess that teams that have one of the top three picks are expecting an all pro player.
I would also guess that all first rounders are expected to make a pro bowl in the next few years.
I would guess that second and third round guys are guys that are expected to start by their second year.
Other than than? who knows. Average NFL career is 3 seasons.
Anyone still playing in the league more than five years later isn't Bust, I don't care when they were drafted. sc