Take a look at this data. Took some high profile picks/names over the years. Most were Top 10 picks less Leinart and McNown who were still pretty high picks. But wanted to add them just due to their brand name coming out of college. Also excluded big success stories like Herbert, Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar. This skews the data a bit. I get that. My takeaway is unless 1) you are winning in playoffs, 2) making all pro and 3) sticking with the team who drafted you then you are sort of considered a bust???? Look at the true busts (Jamarcus, Shuler and Leaf) vs Marcus Mariotta, Baker and even Sam's numbers. There is not meeting expectations (this entire list) and there is BOMBING. Interestingly even the bust got about 2 seasons of play to prove themselves.
You clear that hurdle it becomes a game of TDs vs INTs, game managing, ball protection and of course, winning vs losing.
I did not put win-loss record but you could make an argument that is a useful stat. It is but it also takes away from the QB position albeit as important as it is.
Sam is #2 on this list from a passing yards per game and TDs per game. And he is still 25 years of age. He missed a BUNCH of games because he played on turf and his OL almost got him killed. This is shown in difference between games played vs Baker. He's a full season behind him.
Terrible that 1) he left early and 2) Browns didnt draft him #1. Much better team than the J E T S. Life is like that sometimes. Bakers numbers are ok. Not great but not horrible. Maybe Tampa looked at this spreadsheet. He is #1 on all passing metrics by a decent margin.
To me this shows that Sam is NOT a bust as much as others want to say that. He also clearly isnt a star nor has he saved a franchise. I get that.
Well one thing I knew is that Sam was a much better QB then Sanchez or Leinart. I guess I can chalk that up as a small moral victory FWIW. (very little IMO)
But the real debate was Darnold vs Rosen. Again, Ill take a bow on that one too. Many on this board disagreed with me on that as well.
Great post Paul!
I believe bust is relative to draft position Had Sam been a 2nd round pick nonone would think of him as a bust. Also. Marriotta.
id say the same for adoree Jackson. Dudes been functional.
problem is that when you draft a first rounder. At any position. You are expecting to get a 10 year starter and a guy who for about half his career is a pro bowler. If you’re drafting in the top 5? You’re expecting to draft a hall of famer.
and I’m not being melodramatic here. While not every draftee fits that. Just as you get hof or pro bowlers drafted outside the first round. It is what you’re supposed to be getting based on the number of hof elected each year. The number of pro bowlers etc.
it’s the expectation. So. Sam has had a decent career. He’s young. And this next year will kind of be the senior year in college he never had. That could be very good for him. Adoree? Same idea though he’s making nice money and is starting for a decent team. He’s the 2nd corner or nickel guy and t hat is decent too
so I don’t think it’s an all or nothing thing. Guys are viewed within the lens of expectation. Pistol Pete had a nice NBA career. But based on expectations? Pistol Pete was a professional bust.
You need to add one more category....total turnovers or at least fumbles lost...IMHO