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Election watch. I am ready to call

Or predict Georgia and Arizona to Trump at this point.

with 16 and 11 electoral votes that puts Trump at 246 and he now needs 24 to win

Here’s how that plays out. Swing states left are. Nc 16. Penn 19. Nev 6. Mich 15 and wisc 10.

Trump has to win 2 of them. Any combination of two that includes Pennsylvania wins for him. Failing Pennsylvania he has to win two of 3 among nc Michigan and Wisconsin.

That last option is a tough one. Interestingly the only way Nevada matters here is with Pennsylvania. Without Penn. Nevada isn’t enough to combine w any of the others.

So. Win Pennsylvania and anything else and he wins. Lose it and the best option is nc where he’s pulling the strongest and has the strongest history. Nc and either Michigan or Wisconsin.

They both know that Pennsylvania would make everything so much easier and I imagine it’s why they’re spending so much time there.

Ohio used to make presidencies. Now it’s Pennsylvania. Go figure

28 comments

28 Comments

ted.the.dawg

Oct 30

Prediction?

Onikoroshi

Oct 30

Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results

Java

Oct 30

Replying to

I didn’t request one but got one anyway. After practicing on it I said to heck with it and used it and mailed it in

Onikoroshi

Oct 30

Replying to

kinda funny how all those mail-in ballots are floating around

in places with no voter ID requirement like CA

you know, especially if you don't request one, or more

Java

Oct 30

Replying to

Got a ballot for my kid. Who lives in mass. He said he was registered there. I was super tempted to fill his out and mail it in. Except I know I’m voting Republican I’d probably get prosecuted and thrown in jail longer than the menensez boys

Onikoroshi

Oct 29

Edited

SRB

Oct 30

Replying to

Atlas has been most accurate pollster. Check it out.

Java

Oct 30

Replying to

Atlas is one poll. Rcp is better because it’s an amalgamation

SRB

Oct 30

Replying to

Atlas has proven to be most accurate over last couple election cycles...amalgamation of polls can still reflect bias.ccurate pollster in terms of the national vote in the last two election cycles, 2020 and 2022. They overestimated Joe Biden by 0.2 poi

https://www.hungarianconservative.com/articles/current/most-accurate-pollster-donald-trump-winning-atlas-intel-us-election-2024/nts in 2020, then overestimated the Republicans by 0.3 points in 202

Edited

Onikoroshi

Oct 29

PA was big in the last election

especially when they stopped counting the vote at 3AM so they could deliver 50+ boxes of ballots

Exclusive: Suspicious Vehicle Seen Escorting Late Night Biden Ballot Van at TCF Center

ATLBRUIN

Oct 28

How friggin amazing would it be if Trump won New York? Absolute long shot it's a possibility.

August West

Oct 29

Replying to

NY wont happen, but Trump is leading NJ right now

Java

Oct 30

Replying to

No no no. Thsts not happening either. These are all half hearted effort polls. He’s not winning jersey

August West

Oct 30

Replying to

All I said was he’s leading.

RCP is trash.

Check out @DataRepublican on X

Daystalker

Oct 28

I think dems take Pennsylvania, that is why "she" didn't pick Shapiro, "she" needed him on the ground to bring home the state.

Edited

Java

Oct 29

Replying to

NC, Penn, WISC, MI

At this point he needs any two of these. And MI is trending badly.

ATLBRUIN

Oct 30

Replying to

You know MI is not trending badly when their Muslim leaders are backing Trump. I thought they would be backing Harris.

Daystalker

Oct 30

Replying to

There are a lot of men in Michigan who want Harris. Most of them can't wait to get home from deer hunting to be ball-busted by their thick, homely wives. It is all they know.