I posted this earlier, but thought it deserves it's own post:
come May 2 , the de minimis tariff exception for Chynese shipments will be removed and a $100 postal fee will be applied to ALL parcels from Chyna on top of the tariffs on declared value
after that, the tiktok marketing craze of Chynese businesses might die down a bit
Trump is right about one thing, the Chynese need access to American consumers in order to stay afloat economically, we are responsible for about 3% of their GDP
20% of their economy is dependent on exports, they run about $1T in trade surplus and a THIRD of that is with the US who absorbed about 15% of Chyna's total exports before April
what happens to an economy that loses 3% of their GDP overnight?
when the US completes it's trade deals with Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and India, Chyna will lose another 3.25% of their GDP
US deals with Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and Indonesia with shut down another 2%
leading to the Pacific trading zone shutting down 8.25-9% of Chyna's total GDP, and we haven't even gotten to the EU and UK yet, where deals with the US hammer Chyna's GDP down by another 3% or more
executive summary: Trump plans to destroy around 12-15% of Chyna's GDP by year end, unless Chyna cuts the US a fair deal [Great Depression in the US was started by a one year GDP decline of about 12-13%, when the US was independent of imports of food and energy]
this is against a background where Chyna imports more than half their energy and a quarter of their food and both purchases require hard currency, usually USD
as Trump said, you don't want to be the last country that cuts a deal with the US
China is a piece of Kevin, but may go after Taiwan in response.